Barret Jackson Scottsdale: Have we passed peak prices?

[HP_Cuda]

I watched quite a bit of the BJ 2024 show at Scottsdale. Shockingly some Mopars and other muscle cars went for much less than I thought they would. Seems there is a move downward on prices and wonder how long this will last?

The other thing to consider is are we looking at a moving target. What I mean is the school of fish no longer chasing OEM muscle cars as much versus they are now onto Ferrari's, Porsche's, JDM, etc? Much like you don't see much money in Boyd Hotrods, 57 BelAires, older Caddy's, etc.

Maybe I'm wrong here....

[7E-Bodies]

I think peak needs to be defined. It's insane. I watched someone buy a car I used to own, a 70 Challenger RT Convertible. In it's early days, it had been totaled (rear ended with a salvaged clip put on it), repainted, interior changed from white to black, stripes changed from white to black, original 383 and auto trans yanked and scrapped, a date correct (or close) 440 HP and 4 speed dropped in it, shifter hump from a salvage car was pop riveted in, white top changed to black, interior changed from white to black, interior panels changed from white to black, a 383 jokingly called "number matching" (so grossly machined and re-stamped it was robbery) was to go with it, not even a HP block. Sold for around 80k. A 50 footer at best. I had bet a friend it wouldn't sell because anyone with 68k pockets would surely know their stuff. Not so. Hammer dropped at a local estate auction. Then that new owner flipped it and it sold quick but I didn't find the price it went for. Guessing 80+.

[HP2]

I think for now, yes, we have passed peak prices. Will they remain at this level for the foreseeable future, probably not. I think what we may see of the more pedigreed and desirable cars will hold their price and continue to slowly rise. The more regular cars will hold in value.

The oldest Baby Boomers are going to be 80 next year and the youngest will be 60. Their reach to influence values of these is diminishing. There are a percentage of Gen X interested in these car that will allow values to hold for the next 20 years. After that, I'd imagine it will follow the same trajectory of  pre-war models where some of worth fabulous amounts, others have value, but they will never necessarily be "inexpensive".

[BIGSHCLUNK]

Right now the overall car market is a nuclear wasteland. I could go on for an hour. Dealers, banks, greed, and stupidity all play a factor. But it still boils down to one thing. Consumers are idiots. And the social/economic factor is of no matter. 

[JH27N0B]

I have observed that trying to gage the collector car market isn't much different than trying to predict the stock market.
Everyone has it figured out, or nobody knows nothing, or somewhere in between.
The big auctions are a questionable metric to use.  Lots of sketchy cars at them, and sometimes it takes experts to evaluate if a car is good or bad.  We sit in front of our TV or computer and watch a shiny hemi cuda sell cheap, and then we jump up out of our chair and yell "the market has collapsed!!"
Meantime the experts who inspected it noted a poorly restamped block, repop fender tag and a host of other issues and wonder why anyone actually bought such a mess?
All I know for certain is when I'm selling no one is buying and when I'm in the market no car I'm seeking to be found, or priced to the sky if there is!
And that the costs involved in restoration have gotten so high that good turnkey quality vintage cars for sale will remain in limited supply.

[ragtopdodge]

Saw a beautiful four-speed 68 Hemi GTX go for $77k.

Seems mighty low IMHO.

'71 Cudas still bring strong money though.

[Skdmark]

Interesting read from Hagerty about the collector car market and how values are tracking.

https://www.hagerty.com/media/market-trends/hagerty-insider/sometimes-no-news-is-good-news-even-in-collector-cars/

[Flatdad]

I unabashedly unashamedly hope values tank so the hobby becomes feasible for younger people.

[tparker]

  I am not in this hobby for the money and it gets fustrating how expensive stuff is. Cars are being scooped up and locked away or being torn apart as donor for other cars. It gets crazy looking at trashed cars and seeing them sky rocket in price. I'm priced out if I want another car. I was toying with rebuilding another car but there is no way I could afford it. There is no way I could do this with my grandkid. Oh well.

[cudaragtop]

Didn't watch any BJ Scottsdale but did watch some of the 2024 Mecum Kissimmee.
$159,500 for a 71 340 Duster the case for pretty strong Mopar prices...  "¯\_(ツ)_/¯"
Just one car and maybe the nicest Duster in the country... but wow, $160K

Some other Mopars went for pretty big $$ and then some were pretty well bought.
A friend that went to BJS gave me his take, Two nearly Identical cars selling back to back, one off the charts and the other for what would be typical or lower than expected, maybe there were only 2 buyers looking for that particular Year, Make, Model, etc. The 2 bid it up big. Then the next car really only has the one big player and he gets the deal compared to the first guy... IDK, just a theory. Sure it happens from time to time.
I've been to both Mecum and BJ auctions and seen a lot of very well bought Mopars each time. Sometimes it seemed like there were more supply than demand and sometimes the opposite... You just never know what to expect.

I have a lot of time and $$ into my 69 G3 Hemi Resto-mod Barracuda and have always figured it would never be worth what I will have into it when done. That might not be the case in a couple more years.
Doesn't matter anyway, I plan to give it to my son when it's done and I don't expect he will ever want to sell it.

Many of the parts I bought 4-5 years ago are now double the price I paid.
Glad I bought most of my parts early in the project.
Shop Labor that was $85hr then is now $125hr or more... and now a one year + waiting list at my painter's shop.
All that contributes to higher selling prices...
I've always believed that to get the best deal, buy a done car, let someone else take the loss.
On the other hand, doing it yourself, you can do it exactly the way you want it and know exactly how everything was done... Also allows you to spread the cost over time vs writing a check for it all at once.
That and it gives me something to do that I really enjoy doing!

I had always said that my 70 Cuda convertible would pay off our mortgage one day...
Well, it turns out we won't need it to do that for us... It too, will end up passing to my son someday.

[anlauto]

As another couch potato, never been to a big auction, but I don't think Barret Jackson can be an indicator of the current market since they introduced the "no reserve" policy....nobody is going to bring quality cars there to sell....these Mopars that you see sell for less then market value were likely poor quality

[chargerdon]

First, with a few exceptions Barrett Jackson and Mecum are not hobbyist markets.  They are almost exclusively for "collectors" and Flippers.   Huge percentage of those vehicles are never driven and are what most of us enthusiasts call Trailer Queens.  They are definitely "hobby cars". 

So twice a year at those auctions about 100-200 cars trade hands, and then are resold maybe for a profit or most likely for a loss.   Hardly representative to what i call the enthusiast market... 

Saturday i went to the monthly car cruise where about 150 cars came, parked, their owners either walking around or sitting in lawn chairs conversing with the other owners.   99% of them have cars with engines that are definitely NOT numbers matching, and they have owned their car for at least 5 years...none of them will ever show up at a Barrett Jackson saleathon.

However, the "hobby" lives on...most of the cars at the show have been worked on by their owners, and not brought to restoration shops.   Many do all of their own engine work.  It can be done !! 

Me, i personally have a 74 Challenger.. (yep 72,73 and 74 are not the 70 and 71's everyone wants).   I restored it personally...meaning i did 99% of the restoration work myself...  repaired with my welder all of the rust areas, got the engine from a salvage yard and then brought it to a machine shop for reboring (360la .030 over), installed the stroker crank new rods and pistons myself (now a 408), while also having the machine shop do the valve job on the cast iron heads, installed the cam, new oil and water pumps, edlebrock RPM air intake and Patriot headers.  Behind it is the A518 auto that i personally overhauled and installed, and the rear that i installed in the 8 3/4 is a 3.23 suregrip.   

I sprayed it with two coats of primer, first being epoxy and then wet sanded it before bringing it to a professional painter.  I paid about $1500 to him for the pain and the color and clear spraying and buffing.   All told i have about $18,000  into it and i would estimate about 1,000 hrs of my labor and local prices if i sold it would be around $35,000.  In a world where a stripped new Challenger runs $33,000 and new Mustangs start at $35 it is in reality a solid good investment..  tho i will never ever sale it !!   

[HP_Cuda]

I will add one update. For some insane reason on Sat (last day) prices went through the roof? It's like all the super rich showed up on Sat and went crazy.

I guess what I was really saying is that over time the generations that grew up with the collector cars ages out and the new shiny object becomes something younger generations identify with. I never intend to sell my Cuda as it has a ton of sentimental value.

[70 Challenger Lover]

I think things got soft simply because the US housing market went stagnant due to high interest rates. We've seen these cycles before. When interest rates are very low, the housing market goes crazy. People pull equity from their homes and spend it on toys.

The next car peak will coincide with the next housing peak. When home sales get so overheated that people are making crazy offers on houses $50k above asking, that's when we will be watching our Mopars at auction going for insane new highs. We just need low inflation rates and short supply to reignite the housing market.

The big question isn't if. It's when. It's healthy to let things cool off a few years.

[70_440-6Cuda]

In my area I am still seeing $50-$100k over asking, no contingencies and 30 day escrow.  We put an offer on a house a couple weeks ago - buyer who won was $150K over asking and put a $60k non refundable deposit in escrow.... I can't compete and am waiting to win the lottery of house buying offers by pure chance