Parts shortages coming? What are your thoughts

[ec_co]

so another thread got me thinking about this - the craziness, slowed down/stopped production lines and the possibility of parts 'made in china' potentially being taxed to death or just discontinued all together. since I'm right in the middle of my build and I know a lot you are in the same boat, which parts do you all see as being essential to 'BUY NOW' before they become unobtanium? Cuda front window trim comes to mind for me, always seems hard to find/out of stock anyways. what else is essential now versus 'it can wait a little'?

[JS29]

Body panels might be in the danger zone.

[BIGSHCLUNK]

Out local AFT parts supplier is on a "when its gone its gone" policy right now

[ec_co]

Out local AFT parts supplier is on a "when its gone its gone" policy right now

this is another thing I'm afraid of too. I've heard the same from one of our auto parts suppliers when they didn't have an item in stock ... suggested I look elsewhere (they've never done this)

[Cuda Cody]

I'm pretty sure you are on to something.  There's a good chance that a lot of the parts we have come to know are available might be gone for ever. 

[ec_co]

I was kind of hoping a few of our vendors here would chime in on what they are seeing on the backend now and what they foresee in the coming year, their insight would be invaluable right now.

[Shoooter]

Price increases as well

[RUNCHARGER]

If you are going to need it I would order it now for sure. It's been a good run tbouygh. Personally I don't know why theyt don't use Mexico for cheap labour, The shipping costs would be less.

[Mopar5]

If money is to be made entrepreneurs will make the part . If no demand is present the part will not be feasible I personally think a lot of company's  have Significant money invested in parts making I don't think Covid is going to wipe that out .So  spend what you can to keep them going.AMD PST OER Detroit Muscle to name a few they all  need our support  this pandemic will end soon if you are betting against that your betting against America and science This won't last

[shadango]

I would PREFER repop parts made in the USA.

Every time I have to buy a "made in china" repop part for my USA BUILT Barracuda I cringe.

Yeah, it's great we HAVE the parts available we do.  Sure makes fixing up one of these cars easier.

Still, chinese parts are chinese parts.

I would gladly pay more for a quality USA made part.

Case in point --

When I got my car some 10-11 years ago, I pulled the heater box apart to find a mouse motel inside....the OEM heater core (non-AC) as stained and corroded with mouse pee.....

Well, having a short budget at the time, I cleaned it all up and figured "if it leaks, I will get another one"......

That core lasted 5 years of HARD use.....long trips, lots of hot weather.

So when that one sprung a small leak, I went and bought a parts store one....looked similar to the OEM...copper and brass....but made in china.

At the time I couldn't find anyone to rebuild my original  and settled on the parts store one.

Another five years passed.....at the end of the 4th year I tossed my leaky OEM figured I was golden.

And of course, 1 year after THAT (the beginning of this spring) IT SPRUNG A LEAK!!!!!! It was under warranty so I took it back and got the new one......OMG!!!!   All alluminum this time, thinner, SLOPPY welds, crooked bracket , etc....would not fit my box at all! I could have exchanged that one but was pissed...

Determined to not put another chinese part in its place I googled like crazy and posted everywhere. A kind soul turned me on to Glen- Ray Radiators.

The thing set me back $170 shipped.  Compared to the $40 O'Reileys wanted, OUCH.

But man...what a difference in comparing the two!

Glen-Rays craftsmanship is OUTSTANDING.  I will say that I had one issue with it, but that issue was taken care of by the company quickly.

I just installed the thing this past weekend and no issues.

I would be surprised if I ever do, that is how much better it looks and fits compared to the chinese stuff.

So I paid 4 times the parts store price....BUT WHAT A DIFFERENCE!!!!!

I will post some pics if I can find them....its like night and day IMHO.

The moral of the story -- PRODUCE THE PARTS IN THE USA!!! THEY WILL SELL!!

And doing so will put AMERICANS back to work rather than dig a hole deeper with China.

[BIGSHCLUNK]

Glen Ray did my rad.... hands down the best. Bob is a great guy to deal with

[YellowThumper]

The larger the piece the harder the hit will be.
The previous shutdown from China will only slow supplies. If heavy sanctions are levied many items will go away. In my humble opinion of course.
As a moldmaker by trade I would love to see everything return for manufacturing.  Unfortunately the cost disparity is huge once you factor in the initial capital investments and production costs.
Genreal 30k production mold offshore is a 100k - 120k tool here. Now factor in molding and storing inventory.

[MOPAR MITCH]

I work for a major global auto parts mfgr... we supply parts to all major aftermarket companies (as well as OE parts)... major USA brands.  BEWARE:  Older vehicle parts that are slow movers, nearly dead... are being discontinued.  Simply, the major distributors don't want to carry any inventory on them... special orders... lengthy lead-times (~6 months or more!)... But, this makes the reproduction parts more of a niche market... and pricing will increase dramatically if/when those discontinued parts ever become re-introduced.

[69BFan]

The restoration market place for reproduction parts at this time is very strong.  Typically during a Presidential election year, our sales will drop 4 to 7% up to the time of the election.  Even with the virus situation, our sales on both the retail and wholesale side has been very strong.  Talking with other vendors and manufacturers, they are reporting similar stories.

In regards to what to expect in the months and years to come, it is really hard to say.  Many of the vendors who import product from China stocked up heavily prior to the tariffs being implemented.  Once this inventory is sold off, then expect to see an increase in pricing.  If trade barriers escalate due to tensions between China and the US due to the virus, better selling wear items like door handles, window crank handles, antenna bezels, wheel trim rings, etc. production will just move to India, Thailand, Brazil or Mexico.  With that, expect to see a price increase. 

More costly to produce items like headlight doors, grills, larger body trim pieces that have been on the market for some time and sales have flatten out will be dropped.  Some of the better quality reproduction pieces will become the NOS pieces of the 2020 decade.  Most of the cars are now approaching 50 plus years of age and with each passing year, the demand will slightly trickle off.  Your larger corporate style vendor or manufacturer will not invest into a project if it does not support a profitable return within the first year of sales.  Many of the specialized pieces that are available now are due to local vendors who decided to make a product that they needed themselves and they went out and invested the dollars to have the product made.

Some items like carpet, headliners, vinyl tops, etc will not see a huge difference.  Many parts can be made here in the US.  I know that we all say we want to support the better quality piece.  But it is amazing that we offer two different grades of quality on several pieces that we offer.  I would say that on the whole, close to 60% of the people will choose the cheaper part knowing that I have told them up front that there is an issue with the part.  Some of the parts that we manufacture ourselves cost more to make than what some of the competing vendors retails a similar piece at.  That will possibly impact the market as well in the years to come.

With that said, if you have the financial means to purchase a part and a safe way to store it, then in my opinion, buy what is available as long as it is a high quality piece.  It will hold its value.

[ec_co]

thank you @MOPAR MITCH  and @69BFan , this is the kind of input I was hoping to hear from behind the scenes.